AK vs 22
Ace-king against a pair of twos, all in before the flop. Two overcards against the smallest pair in the deck — closer than it looks.
The numbers
AK
ace-king
48.0%
equity
22
a pair of twos
52.0%
equity
| Outcome | Share of boards |
|---|---|
| AK wins | 47.7% |
| 22 wins | 51.7% |
| Split pot | 0.6% |
Exact, not simulated. AK means ace-king and 22 means a pair of twos: 96 legal ways to deal the two hands, and every one of the 1,712,304 possible five-card boards dealt for each — 164,381,184 board-and-hand combinations in total, each one scored by the same evaluator the calculator uses. Combinations that are the same hand with the suits renamed were counted once and weighted by how many they stand for: 6 distinct suit patterns stand in for all 96, which is the same answer for 16 times less work.
Why it comes out this way
The pair of twos is the only made hand right now, but both of ace-king's cards are higher than it. Six cards in the deck — the aces and the kings — pair ace-king up and put it in front.
That is why this is close rather than one-sided: the pair of twos wins 51.7%, ace-king wins 47.7%. The pair of twos is ahead on every board that misses those six cards, which is most of them, but it is only ever one card from losing the lead.
Suitedness is part of the answer: AKs wins 49.6% and AKo wins 47.0%. The figure at the top of this page is the average of both, weighted the way they actually come out of a deck — four suited combinations to twelve offsuit.
The pot is split 0.6% of the time.
Open it in the calculator
The link below deals one typical version of this matchup — Aof spadesKof hearts against 2of spades2of diamonds — into the calculator, with both hands set and the board empty. Add community cards one at a time to watch the equity move, or change a card to see how much the suits are worth.