Draw odds: flushes, straights and gutshots
The three draws you get most often, the real percentages for each, and the reason a completed draw sometimes wins nothing.
Three questions, three answers
A draw raises three separate questions, and charts usually answer only the first. Will one of my cards arrive? That is the outs chart, and it depends only on how many unseen cards help you. Will it put me in front? Not always — the card that makes your straight can make somebody else a flush, or give a second player the same straight. Will I win the pot? Different again, because after the turn there is still the river, and because some hands win without ever completing the draw.
The three numbers below every worked example are those three answers, in that order. They are rarely the same number, and the gap between them is the part that costs people money.
The flush draw
You hold two cards of one suit and two more of that suit are on the flop. Thirteen cards of each suit exist, four of them are already showing, so nine are left.
| Cards that complete it | On the turn | On the river | Turn or river |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35.0% |
This is the strongest of the three common draws, and the only one where the hand you are drawing to usually wins when it arrives — a flush beats every pair, two pair and three of a kind.
The open-ended straight draw
You have four cards in a row and can complete the straight at either end — 6-7-8-9 is completed by any five and any ten. Two ranks, four cards each, so eight cards.
| Cards that complete it | On the turn | On the river | Turn or river |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% |
Straights are easier to share than flushes: the cards that complete yours often complete somebody else’s too, because a straight is made of ranks and nobody needs the right suit. That is the difference between hitting and winning.
The gutshot
You need one specific rank in the middle — 6-7-9-10 needs an eight. One rank, four cards.
| Cards that complete it | On the turn | On the river | Turn or river |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% |
Four cards is not many, and a gutshot on its own rarely justifies a large bet. It matters most when it comes with something else, such as a flush draw or two overcards, because then you are counting all of those cards together.
Worked hands
Both hands below were run through the FeltOdds engine when this page was built. The first is the simple case; the second is the one that convinces people the chart is lying to them.
A flush draw with two overcards
Two players. You hold Aof spadesKof spades, your opponent holds Qof heartsQof diamonds, and the flop is 7of spades4of spades2of hearts.
- Cards that complete the flush draw9 of 45 unseen cards
- Cards that put you alone in front15 of 45
- Chance of winning the pot from here55.1%
Right now you have ace high with a king kicker and you are behind. The engine checked all 45 unseen cards one at a time: 15 of them put you alone in front on the turn, and none of them leaves the pot tied.
Those 15 cards are the nine remaining cards of your suit plus the three aces and three kings that pair you up. This is the clean case the outs chart is built for: nothing you need is already dealt, and every card that arrives wins the hand outright rather than sharing it.
Note the gap between the second number and the third. 15 cards in 45 is 33.3% on the turn alone, but your chance of actually winning the pot by the river is 55.1%, because two cards are still to come and you get two chances at them.
The same chart, and not one out that wins
Ten players, all cards known. You hold 3of diamondsQof hearts and the board is 3of hearts9of diamondsJof clubs10of clubs. One card to come, and the chart says an open-ended straight draw is worth eight outs.
- Cards that complete the straighteight in the deck on paper, but four are in other players’ hands
- Cards that put you alone in frontnone of 28
- Chance of winning the pot from here0.0%, plus 10.7% split
You need eights and kings to make the straight. All four eights are already dealt to other players — 8of clubs8of diamonds8of hearts8of spades — so that half of the draw does not exist.
Of the four cards that are still live, Kof diamondsKof heartsKof spades give you the straight and give seat 9 exactly the same straight, so the pot is split. Kof clubs gives you the straight too, and puts a third club on the board, which hands seat 2 a flush.
So all three numbers differ: eight cards on paper, none that put you alone in front, and a 0.0% chance of winning the pot against a 10.7% chance of splitting it. A chart counts cards; only checking the other players’ hands one card at a time can tell you what those cards are worth.